Thursday, January 01, 2009

Alleged Psychic Sylvia Browne's 2008 Predictions: Success Rate

Before I start here, I would just like to offer the humblest of apologies for not posting on my blog for approximately four months. I won't make excuses, I'll just say that school and other activities kept me extremely busy.

As I hope any frequent reader of my blog has guessed by now, I am a critic of alleged psychic Sylvia Browne. Starting at the beginning of 2008, I began documenting the predictions she would make on the now-canceled daytime-talk show Montel, hosted by Montel Williams. On the December 31, 2007 broadcast of Montel, Browne made several verifiable predictions dealing with politics, pop culture medicine and natural disasters. I made a list of these predictions here, and offered a mid-year update on them here. Now that 2008 has given way to 2009, I can accurately assess the success rate for the predictions Browne gave for 2008.

On the December 31, 2007 episode of Montel, Browne made 14 predictions that were specific enough to be falsifiable. I will present these predictions in a simple list format, and refer to a correct prediction as a “hit” and an incorrect prediction as a “miss.” I will also offer links to any sources that support or refute the claims made in the predictions and provide my own commentary. Any text which appears in quotes is the exact phrasing used by Browne.

As with all of my posts dealing with Sylvia Browne, I admit freely that I do not think she is psychic in any way, shape or form. Browne's despicable business practices are my definition of evil, and I'm attempting to do what little I can to offer a critical assessment of her. I write these posts in an effort to make Browne's numerous failings as an alleged psychic clear to anyone who may be interested.

1. Britney Spears’ younger sister Jaime Lynn Spears will have her baby.
Spears the younger gave birth to a healthy, although 10-days-premature, baby girl on June 19, 2008. Complications during the delivery apparently forced doctors to perform an emergency Cesarean on the 17-year old. Browne had what amounts to a 50/50 chance of getting this prediction correct. Spears would have either had the baby, or somehow terminated the pregnancy. Given entertainment news media's obsession with the entire Spears family, an abortion of any kind was pretty much out of the question for young Jaime Lynn. Was Browne correct? Yes. Is it impressive? Hardly.
Prediction #1: Hit

2. Browne described Britney Spears as having a “bi-polar condition,” and that she will get help for it in 2008.
A December 9 post on the Times of the Internet explaining Spears' reluctance to embark on a 2009 concert tour was the only blog post or news story I could find that asserts Spears was diagnosed with bipolar disorder. However, the post does not offer any source to support its claim. Other stories discussing Spears' mental health offered only speculation and no concrete evidence to support the claim that she was officially diagnosed as being bipolar in 2008. Even if Spears actually is bipolar, no news stories reported the singer getting help for the condition.
Prediction #2: Miss

3.
Actor Owen Wilson will have “another dip” in his depression.
After Wilson's alleged late-2007 suicide attempt, a 2008 depression-related incident seemed like a logical assertion. However, Wilson had no publicized bouts with depression in 2008. In fact, a February 28 post on the entertainment news blog Defamer
reported on Wilson returning to work on Marley and Me, a film currently in theaters, and possible reuniting with actress Kate Hudson, his former girlfriend.
Prediction #3: Miss

4. Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie will adopt another child.
A November 12 story from the news section of the website Celebrity Archives reported that Pitt and Jolie are planning to adopt another child, but will wait until their twins, born in July of 2008, are six months old.
Prediction #4: Miss

5. Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie will not stay together.

Since this prediction was given as part of a list of predictions for the year 2008, I think it is safe to assume Browne meant to say that the couple will break up in 2008. As of the writing of this post, Pitt and Jolie are still together.
Prediction #5: Miss

6. United State troops stationed in Iraq will start coming home "in increments" due to the withdrawal of other collation forces.
No major United States troops withdrawals from Iraq took place in 2008. An August 21 article from the website for National Public Radio reported that a deal agreed upon by Iraq and the United States has set a preliminary timetable for a withdrawal of American forces from Iraqi cities by June of 2009.
Prediction #6: Miss

7.
President Bush’s approval rating will continue to drop.
According to a December 31 article from the Los Angeles Times, President Bush will end his presidency with some of the lowest marks of approval of any recent president. From the article:

"According to a Pew survey released this month, just 11% of Americans rate Bush as an 'above-average president,' compared with 59% for Ronald Reagan and 44% for Bill Clinton as they left office."

Now, you only really have to have the ability to understand the English language and own a television set to "predict" that president Bush was not going to get any more popular in 2008. In all fairness, though, Browne did call this one correctly; as I'm sure most of the United States would have if asked.
Prediction #7: Hit

8.
Senator Barack Obama will become the Democratic "front-runner" in the race to be the next president of the United States.
A cursory glance at any newspaper within the last few months will show that Browne was indeed correct on this one. Notice, however, that she did not go so far as to say that Obama will be the next president of the United States. Since this prediction was made way back in December of 2007, she could not confidently make such a claim. Rather, she saved the "prediction" that Obama will win the presidency for October 3, 2008; a month before the presidential elections. Browne offered this nugget of augury in a video posted on Youtube in which even she did not seem confident in her own powers. Quoted from the video:

"It's getting very close and I...I don't know, I really thought at one time that it might be Barack, but I'm leaning a little toward John McCain now. But that sounds like I'm doing a double thing but I'm still going to stick with Barack Obama. Because I think people need a new regime, I really do."

A month before the elections and she can't be anymore sure than this? Remember, everyone, this is a woman who charges $850 for an over-the-phone "reading."
Prediction #8: Hit

9.
Browne predicts "diabetic breakthroughs."
In addition to a University of Manchester team discovering a new technique for turning stem cells into insulin-producing pancreatic tissue, a September 18 article from localtechwire.com reported on a University of North Carolina team that successfully turn human skin cells into insulin producing cells. Insulin is the hormone that people diagnosed with diabetes lack. I can assure you that "diabetic breakthroughs" is all Browne said regarding this specific prediction. Given such a broad claim, medical science was bound to produce something that could be counted as a "breakthrough" regarding diabetes in 2008. One has to wonder why Browne could not offer any more details.
Prediction #9: Hit

10. Browne predicts the use of "sound waves with cancer."

Again, the quoted statement was all Browne had to offer regarding the treatment of cancer with sound waves. Because of her trademark vagueness, a December 22 ScienceDaily article about a pocket-sized ultrasound device could possibly apply. This device, invented by a graduate student at Cornell University, could help treat brain cancer by using intense sound waves to push medication through the brain after surgery. This "prediction" was slightly more specific than "diabetic breakthroughs" but still did not offer much useful information.
Prediction #10: Hit

11.
Browne predicts "whooping cough, mumps and measles will be on the rise" in 2008.
This prediction was the most difficult to investigate since news stories often only focus on outbreaks of such diseases in specific parts of the country, as opposed to rises nationwide. A report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stated that cases of measles from January to July of 2008 were the highest they've been since 1996. An article in The New York Times attributed this rise in part to the unwillingness of many parents to vaccinate their children for fear of links to autism. Also, the Anchorage Daily News reported December 19 on a rise in reported cases of whooping cough in Alaska's capital city of Juneau, while Physorg.com offered a November 21 report on the rise of whooping cough cases in the Midwest. Despite the ambiguity of Browne's "prediction," I will count this one as a hit for her. Though one must ask the question: if Browne really did see these outbreaks coming, why did she not seek out any medical professionals who could have taken the proper steps to lessen the impacts of the outbreaks?
Prediction #11: Hit

12.
Browne predicted more tsunamis.
No newsworthy tsunamis occurred in 2008.
Prediction #12: Miss

13. Browne predicted "a big earthquake in Japan."
A 7.2 magnitude earthquake did strike Japan’s Iwate prefecture on June 14, 2008 killing nine people and injuring at least 200. One would think Browne would have been obligated to alert Japanese authorities to this danger, or at least offer a more specific location. If Browne did either of these things, she did not publicize them.
Prediction #13: Hit

14. predicted "
volcanoes erupting from all parts of the country that have been dead for years."
The only reported volcanic eruptions in the United States occurred in Alaska in midsummer 2008. A total of three Alaskan volcanoes erupted over the summer. Hardly "from all parts of the country" as Browne predicted.
Prediction #14: Miss

So, how well did Browne do predicting the major events of 2008? With regards to this list, she predicted seven events correctly and seven events incorrectly. Exactly half. I won't go on to mention the major events that Browne failed to predict, the economic collapse for one, since expecting her to predict events like that would be unfair. With that logic, for example, I could complain that she failed to predict me doing all the various things I did in 2008. It does make one wonder, though, how big does an event have to be for it to show up on Browne's radar?

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321 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 321 of 321
ツイッター said...

ツイッターから始まる人間関係!今話題のツイッターなら新しい出逢いがすぐに見つかります

メル友 said...

全国からメル友募集中の女の子達が、あなたとのであいを待ってるよ!無料エントリーで自由な恋愛を楽しんじゃお

出会い said...

出会い系サイトで逆援助生活をしよう!エッチなセレブ女性たちが集まっています

モバゲー said...

モバゲーを使ってご近所さんと知り合えちゃう!新感覚のコミュニティサービスを利用してみよう

玉の輿度チェッカー said...

今の時代簡単に金持ちになる方法は中々無いけど、可能性は誰しも秘めてます!!そう一番手っ取り早いのは玉の輿です。この玉の輿度チェッカーをキッカケに金持ちになった方が、意外と多いのです。是非あなたも一段高みを目指しませんか

出会い said...

一流セレブたちが出会いを求めて集まっています。彼女たちからの逆援助でリッチな生活を楽しみましょう

流出画像 said...

芸能人のプライベートな流出画像など、色々なヤバい写真も見れる。無料登録で思う存分楽しんで下さい

出会い系 said...

セレブの為の出会い系、セレブの雫では女性会員数も増え、男性会員様が不足するという状態となっております。そこで先着順に、男性会員様を募集しております

スタービーチ said...

日本で一番会員数が多いのはやっぱりスタービーチ!若い娘から熟女まで好みのご近所さんがすぐに見つかる☆無料期間中に試してみませんか

出会い said...

お金持ちの女性と出会い、彼女たちとHするだけで謝礼がもらえるサイトをご存じですか?高収入の女性ほど、お金を使っていろいろな男性と遊んでいます

モバゲー said...

流行のモバゲーで友達たくさん!運命の出会いがあるかも!?まだ初めていない人も無料ゲームで遊ぼう

Hチェッカー said...

みんなでワイワイやるならHチェッカー!!これ一つ有れば偶然を装いつつ、気になる人の隠れエッチ度も分ちゃいます。お近づきアドバイスも付いてるから、これを機会に親密になろう

モニター said...

副業 在宅 でも出来る モニターアルバイト 募集!数ある副業の中、馬券モニター程稼げる副業はない!初心者の方でも簡単にできるのが最大の特権です

スタービーチ said...

スタービーチで幸せ掴みませんか?楽しめる出.会.いをしたいならここしかない!今までとは一味もふた味も違う出.会.いを体験していきましょう

逆援助 said...

女の子に逆援助してほしい、女の子と真剣にお付き合いしたい、複数プレイをやってみたい、童貞・処女を卒業したいのなら新感覚コミュニティ・ラブフリーでメル友を探そう

モバゲー said...

大人気モバゲーが遂に出合いの場所に!モバゲーだから気軽に出会える!出合いに縁がなかった方も是非ご利用くださいませ

スタービーチ said...

スタービーチは誰にでも出逢いという奇跡をもたらしてくれる。スタビで理想の関係作りしてみませんか

井の中のカ○ズ君 said...

流行りの検索ワードの番組、井の中のカ○ズ君で紹介された在宅ホスト倶楽部っていうワードで簡単にお金稼ぎました。携帯からgoogle検索にアクセスして在宅ホスト倶楽部って検索してみてください☆男性の方なら家でいるだけで1日2万円ぐらい稼げちゃうから本当に楽ちんだよ。誰か一緒にこの仕事で盛り上がろう

モバゲー said...

モバゲーでは友達から恋愛まで、様々な出 会いを探せる無料のコミュニティサイトです。常時サポートスタッフが掲示板をチェック、サクラや業者を排除しておりますので安心してご利用いただけます

スタービーチ said...

日本最大級の出会いコミュニティ「スタービーチ」で探しませんか。素敵な出会いを経験して理想の人と楽しい思い出を作りましょう

スタービーチ said...

スタービーチなら好みの女性がきっと見つかる!会員数ナンバーワンのスタビでご近所さんを探そう

スタービーチ said...

日本最大級の出会いコミュニティ「スタービーチ」で探しませんか。素敵な出会いを経験して理想の人と楽しい思い出を作りましょう

モバゲー said...

出会い専門のモバゲーSNSが誕生!メル友、恋人、セフレetc…貴方の理想に合った関係になれちゃいます。素敵な人と過ごしたいならココで見つけてみませんか

スタービーチ said...

最近スタービーチが女の子のコミュニティーサイトで話題中みたい!!夏休み目前ってのもあり登録比率に女性の数が半端ね~、やっぱり夏に一人は辛すぎや~とか思ってたら、暇な娘多すぎ・彼女簡単に出来ちゃった

スタービーチ said...

出 会いを探しているのなら会員数ナンバーワンのスタービーチ!開放的な夏休みはここで新しい出 会いを見つけよう!

グリー said...

グリー発信!!出会い専門SNS誕生、今話題のgreeから出会いをGETしよう。greeにしかできない事が盛りだくさん!!気軽にメールするだけで出会えるサイト・・・貴方の理想の異性と出会いませんか

gree said...

話題のgreeで新しい出会いを見つけよう!夏休みに入ってヒマしてる女の子が急増中!無料期間中にご近所の女の子をGETしちゃおう

セフレ said...

セフレを探しているならここ!割りきった体の関係を探している女性と出会いのチャンス!セックス目的なので会ってすぐにヤれちゃいます

モバゲー said...

モバゲー専門の出会い掲示板が誕生!出会いを求めている方にはオススメのサイトです。幸せな時間を過ごしたい方、淋しい思いをしたくない方はぜひご覧ください

逆援助 said...

逆援助でお金持ちになる事が可能なこの時代。セックスのテクニックさえあれば簡単に大金をゲットする事ができます

スタビ said...

スタビでできる新しい恋・・・素敵な出合いをするならスタビから始めてみませんか?女性に面識のない方でもサポート機能があるから安心してご利用できます。是非一度利用してみて下さい

モバゲー said...

モバゲー出会い掲示板は色々な種類の出会いを扱っております。登録無料で新しい恋の始まる事は確実です

ツイッター said...

今話題沸騰中!?新感覚出会いをツイッターで体験しませんか?リアルタイムで相手が何をしてるか分かるから、理想の人かどうかが簡単に分かる。貴方の理想の人をGETしませんか

mコミュ said...

素敵な出 会 いで愛を育む♪理想の人と楽しめる関係を築きませんか?mコミュでしか味わえない幸せを掴みましょう

スタービーチ said...

スタービーチで会える!?理想の異性をGETしよう☆素敵な出会いばかりだから求めている関係も作りやすい!!貴方が求めているのはどういった恋ですか?

名言チェッカー said...

他の人が言ってる名言や格言って良い事言ってるな~とか思ってる方、名言チェッカーで今日から自分に相応しい言葉を見つけませんか!!これでどんな人にも一目置かれる存在に為れますよ

mixi said...

mixiをも凌駕する出会い率!!出会いをするならここしかない♪mixiより出会えてしまうこのサイト。一度ハマれば辞めれません。スタービーチで素敵な出会いをしちゃいましょう

モバゲー said...

モバゲーで出会いをすれば楽しい事は間違いありません。暑いからこそ出会いを楽しむべきなのです。登録無料で簡単に利用可能!

モバゲータウン said...

モバゲータウンでは恋愛から出合いまでのキッカケをつかめる無料のコミュニティサイトです。常時サポートスタッフが掲示板をチェック、サクラや業者を排除しておりますので安心してご利用いただけます

スタビ said...

スタビが今一番アツイのはご存じでしょうか?夏休みで出会いを探している娘とすぐに会えちゃうんです。登録無料でここまで出会える所は他には存在しません。今登録して良いパートナーに巡り合おう

スタービーチ said...

出会いのシーズン、夏到来!スタービーチでご近所さんと知り合っちゃおう!ひと夏の体験も女の子は求めている

Anonymous said...

Holy shit, I had no idea that this many Japanese pornbots had deeply-held beliefs about Sylvia Browne!

モバゲー said...

モバゲーでついに出会いができる!?楽しめる出会い、求めていた出会いはココから始まる。素敵な出会いでまずは関係づくりwしていきましょう

gree said...

greeで素敵な時間を過ごしたい・・・そんな願望を叶えてくれるサイト誕生!!今までにないドキドキ感と興奮をこのグリーで楽しみましょう

スタビ said...

スタビで出会いができる!!いつでもどこでも出会いが可能なスタービーチで最高の出会いをしてみませんか

mコミュ said...

簡単な出逢いはココでできる☆素敵な出逢いをmコミュで体験していきませんか?楽しめる出逢いを経験するならここしかない!!まずはお試しを

ツイッター said...

新時代突入!ツイッターで始まる出逢い…ここでしかできない出逢いが新しい風を巻き起こす!!素敵な巡りあわせを体験していこう!

SMチェッカー said...

あなたの秘められたSM度がわかるSMチェッカー!簡単な質問に答えるだけで自分の隠された部分が分かります!みんなで試してみよう

モバゲー said...

今やモバゲーは押しも押されもせぬ人気SNS!当然出 会いを求めてる人も多い!そこで男女が出 逢えるコミュニティーが誕生!ここなら友達、恋人が簡単にできちゃいますよ

モバゲー said...

もう夏休みも終わりに近づき、この夏最後の思い出を作りたいと焦ってる方が、モバゲーのコミュニティーに書かれてましたよ!!折角なんで夏の思い出作りに協力して自分も美味しい思いをしてみるのはどうですか?大手スポンサーサイトが付いてるので全部タダですよ

グリー said...

最近はどこのSNSサイトも規制ばっかりで、ちょっと出 合いに関して書き込みするとアク禁食らうけど、夏休み終盤に差し掛かり色々なサイトを調べた結果、グリーだけはどうも規制が緩んでるみたいです。今がチャンスの時期ですよ

ツイッター said...

ツイッターで出 合 いを求めるのです。気の合う異性と交流して楽しいひと時をお過ごしください。登録無料で使えるので気軽さは100点満点!

mコミュ said...

mコミュでならご近所さんと出会える確率99%!友達や恋人を探してる人はここで見つけてみませんか

モテる度チェッカー said...

夏休みももう終わりに近づきこのまま一人は寂しいのちがう?そこでモテる度チェッカーを使い自分がなぜモテないか診断してもらいましょう。10~20代の女性アドバイザーが多数在籍してるので、アドバイスを参考に夏終盤を楽しもう

グリー said...

やっぱりグリーなら安心して友達、恋人が探せます。夏休み中の今ならすぐに会えるかも!?素敵な出会いを楽しんでみませんか

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グリー said...

今年のクリスマスも後少しですね。グリー内でもクリスマスに備えて異性と交流を持つコミュニティが活発で、自分も今年のクリスマスにお陰で間に合いました!!みなさんもイブを一人で過ごさなくても良いように、グリーで異性をGETしよう

家出少女掲示板 said...

家出少女掲示板ではただいま家出少女たちで溢れています。寒空の中、エッチをしてでも泊めてほしいお股のゆるい女の子たちを助けてあげませんか?

出逢い said...

新年を寂しく過ごしている方に必見。まだ間に合う出逢いのサイトです。冬休み後半の思い出作りに異性と過ごしませんか?今から始まる異性との新たな関係を築き、一年の初めを良い思い出に変えましょう

ログとも said...

出会い系の決定版サイト「ログとも」!!友達を作りたい人や恋人募集中の人、ちょっとえっちな秘密の関係を求めている人などがわんさか集まる当サイト、ログともで出会いを掴んじゃおう!

デコログ said...

今、本当に出会える掲示板はデコログ!密かに芸能人も愛用しているので友達になれちゃうかも!ガンガン出会えるデコログをぜひ一度ご利用ください!

SM度チェッカー said...

セックスをしてもイマイチとか、なんかマンネリしてる方に必見!!医療界公認のSM度チェッカーで新しい自分を発見しませんか?きっと今の生活を一変出来ますよ。ちなみに相方探しもついでにしてくれますよ

モバゲー said...

モバゲー利用者が集まるコミュニティ!!まったりのんびりSNSを楽しみたい方は当サイトをご覧ください。オフ会も用意してるので新しい出会いもあるかも

出合い said...

待望の新・都市伝説サイト誕生!!高確率の出会い率を誇るサイトに侵入した調査員が実際に体験した刺激的な体験とは…?信じるか信じないかはあなた次第!

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In regards to predictions 11 and 13: Don't you, as a skeptic, find your statements in regards to her not alerting authorities to be just a tad hypocritical? Many of the people in a position to do anything at all would not believe her any more than you would. Ask yourself, for instance; if I were to tell you in this very post I had predicted some sort of personal "disaster" (car accident, illness, et cetera) for you, would you ignore it or listen just because I said so? The likelihood of such an event exists regardless of any prediction, after all, and on some level we all know it, and it would frankly be an inconsequential occurrence in the grand scheme of things.

How hard would you be to convince with vague information such as Ms. Browne provided? Now how hard do you think Japanese officials, the CDC, whoever, would be to convince? Based on the word of a psychic? I'm not arguing your point or information, or even whether or not she even did, but rather your bothering to mention she apparently did not according to available records. Frankly I find it a bit insulting that you would even hint CDC officials would bother to make note of receiving the call, let alone fly into action, or even be more than mildly amused by the predictions of a self-proclaimed psychic no matter how famous.

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As far as her "hit" on the rise in diseases that we have vaccines for she wouldn't have told any medical personnel as that's who she would have gotten the prediction from.

Since 2005 almost any article on the crusade against immunizations, my apologies I can't cite any at the moment but research will find them, has quoted doctors and other health officials as warning that the danger of not immunizing children will be a rise in childhood illnesses rarely seen in modern day.

This prediction is one that any number of people could have made on the basis that it was public knowledge that people were going against immunizations and that celebrities had taken up the cause which always increases the amount of people taking an action or failing to do so.

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