Not Alien Abductees, Call Them Cryptomnesiacs

It seems I have been hearing quite a bit about UFOs and alien abductions lately. CNN's Larry King Live has devoted two whole hour-long shows in the last two weeks to UFO hunters and debating the "truth" about what happened in Roswell, NM in 1947. There was a recent article in Scientific American telling the story of a scientist who's working on a "real flying saucer" (I wrote about it here), and now I find this.

It's a story on the io9 blog about a 1993 report, which was published in Skeptical Inquirer. The report, written by professor of sociology at Rutgers University Ted Goertzel, calls into question the findings of a 1992 report that found 3.7 million Americans suffer from "alien abduction syndrome."

The original report, the one on which Goertzel wrote his, offered five experiences that might suggest one was abducted by aliens. But since there have never been any scientifically confirmed cases of alien abduction, I am at a loss as to how these five experiences were chosen. The descriptions of the experiences were as follows:

1. "Waking up paralyzed with a sense of a strange person or presence or something else in the room."
2. "Experiencing a period of time of an hour or more, in which you were apparently lost, but you could not remember why or where you had been."
3. "Feeling that you were actually flying through the air although you didn't know why or how."
4. "Seeing unusual lights or balls of light in a room without knowing what was causing them."
5. "Finding puzzling scars on your body and neither you nor anyone else remembering how you received them or where you got them."

If a participant in the study claimed to recognize four or more of these experiences, he or she would qualify as an "abductee." Again, how the researchers were able to come to such a conclusion based upon what amount to assumptions about what a "real" alien abduction feels like, I do not know.

In an attempt to remedy methodological and logical deficiencies in the original report, Goertzel tasked one of his research methods classes at Rutgers with redesigning the study.

"Our questionnaire included the same items which they believed were indicators of UFO abduction, but added other items designed to place their items in a broader psychological context."

Goertzel's class conducted interviews with 697 residents of Southwestern New Jersey. They found that 3.7% of the residents interview were considered "abductees" by the standards set down by the original study. The 18 other questions designed to gain a more in-depth psychological picture of the respondents asked about beliefs in government conspiracies, astrology and the respondents' ease of trusting others.

The addition of the new questions revealed the "alien abduction syndrome" for what it truly was, a psychological phenomenon known as cryptomnesia.

"Psychologist Robert Baker (1992: 78) states that this phenomenon of 'seeing complex visual images in one's head that you cannot remember ever having seen before or...suddenly hearing voices from unknown and unrecollected sources is not only a much more common occurrence than is generally known but is also one of the more interesting and intriguing anomalies in the field of 'normal' human behavior.'"

"To investigate the cryptomnesia phenomenon, Goertzel mapped out the correlation between the various survey responses and the reports of unusual personal experiences. People who believe that high government officials were involved in the Kennedy assassination, for example, had a 21% correlation with those supposed 'abductees.' There was a 20% correlation between 'abductees' and those who think the Air Force is hiding evidence of flying saucers. But the most overlap occurred with two separate groups of survey respondents: Those who admitted to feeling that others were conspiring against them, and those who said they enjoyed 'reading books about UFOs and other strange phenomena.'"

Further analysis by Goertzel suggested that cryptomnesia was rooted in a lack of trusting relationships. The ability to trust others, such as friends or neighbors, was one of the deeper psychological aspects Goertzel's revised study sought to explore.

"The path analysis suggests that cryptomnesia is rooted in a lack of trusting relationships. This problem may have its origins in early childhood, but it continues into adult life with a lessened feeling of trust of friends and neighbors. This lack of trust leads to feelings of anomie and anxiety which make the individual more likely to construct false memories out of information stored in the unconscious mind. People who think in this way are susceptible to belief in conspiracy theories since these theories help them to make sense of an otherwise incoherent world."

Goertzel cautions that his study is hardly comprehensive. He has not done the psychological case studies necessary to prove the conclusions made in his analysis. All his study does, Goertzel writes, is "...provide a more plausible interpretation of the data than the UFO abduction hypothesis." In this case, Goertzel has shown more scientific integrity than the authors of the original study. For one think, he didn't claim that 3.7% of Southwestern New Jersey residents are cryptomnesiacs.

Why do some people feel the need to complicate an incredibly interesting psychological phenomenon such as cryptomnesia with useless nonsense about alien abductions? The same can be said for sleep paralysis, which is a documented condition whose symptoms are incredibly similar to those described by alleged alien abductees; indeed a condition which can account for three of the five experiences described in the original study. When did the wonders of the labyrinthine human mind get replaced by myths?

The World's First Flying Saucer: Made Right Here on Earth

I just love the subtle jab Scientific American took at people who think UFOs are controlled by extraterrestrials with the title of this article.

Subrata Roy, an associate professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering at the University of Florida, is currently working on plans to build a flying machine that uses electrodes on its surface to ionize the air around it, turning the air into plasma. The positively charged plasma would then repel the neutrally charged air around it, theoretically creating enough force to lift the craft of the ground. Roy plans to have a model of the craft ready to demonstrate his claims within the next year.

"At six inches (15.2 centimeters) in diameter, the device, which Roy calls a 'wingless electromagnetic air vehicle"'(WEAV), will truly be a flying saucer. Theoretically, Roy says, the flying saucer can be as large as anyone wants to build it, because the design gives the aircraft balance and stability. In other words, this type of aircraft could someday be built large enough to ferry around people. But, Roy says, 'we need to walk before we can run, so we're starting small.'"

"The biggest hurdle to building a WEAV large enough to carry passengers would be making the craft light, yet powerful enough to lift its cargo and energy source. Roy is not sure what kind of energy source he will use yet. He anticipates that the craft's body will be made from a material that is an insulator such as ceramic, which is light and a good conductor of electricity."

"Roy has been working with the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, Ohio, since 2001 to study how plasma could be used to control the flow of air—pushing air in different directions—and thereby the vehicle's movements. "

"At this early stage, and without a clear decision on how the craft will be powered, Roy says it is unclear how much a WEAV might cost to build and operate. Still, he is optimistic. 'All of the materials needed to make this aircraft currently exist,' he says, 'and plasma is the most abundant form of matter in the universe. If we can somehow tap into that in the future we should be able to fly anywhere.'"

You see, this kind of thing is just cool. I simply do not understand why some people need to perpetuate the myth of alien-controlled UFOs when the reality of science is so much more interesting.

Kinoki Foot Pads: Update

A call I received a few days ago earned Walgreens a little bit more respect from me (like the company cherishes that as a valuable commodity). It may not have been the answer I would have preferred to hear, but at least they actually responded to my Kinoki Foot Pads complaint.

The call came from the reasonable and soft-spoken manager of the specific branch of Walgreens about which I had complained. He politely told me what a store sells is not up to the local managers to decide, as I had suspected. The Walgreens corporate office makes those decisions, he said, and corporate wants to sell the foot pads because people keep buying them. He told me since the original airing of the ABC News report, the Kinoki people had removed all unsubstantiated claims from their packaging; which is really all an investigative journalist could expect.

I was glad to hear a tone of reluctance to sell the products in the manager's voice. This was most evident when he told me that some of his employees have bought the foot pads. He also mentioned he thought there are way too many of this type of product on the market. A statement with which I wholeheartedly agree.

So, this proved to be a valuable learning experience. You can't always get the desired outcome in situations like this, but the manager's attitude and the results of the ABC News report served as a glimmer of hope that rationality and skepticism can still enjoy small victories every so often.

Catholics Threaten a Student With Death Because of A Cracker

I know I just wrote a post about how I won't be able to post in the next few days, but this story is just too good to pass up. I don't really have the time to present one of my usual summaries, but trust me, anything I write would not do PZ Myers writing style justice.

The story in question can be found here. Read it and wonder how far humans have truly come since the Dark Ages.

Also, you might want to check out Dr. Myers' post here to find out how many death threats he has personally received for daring to express his opinion about the above mentioned story. Apparently, it's a personal record for him.

Jeremy the Skeptic On Hold

Due to some unfortunate unforeseen circumstances, my computer situation has recently become a temporary one. What this ultimately means is that I won't be able to post here for the next few days.

Not to worry, though. All this really means is that I'll have loads of stuff about which to talk once I get back.

Atheist Soldier Sues Army for "Unconstitutional" Discrimination

Fortunately, my approximately three years of being an "out-of-the-closet" atheist have not been marred by any serious discrimination. I imagine I have my friends and the college in which I'm enrolled to thank for that. However, this has not made me blind to the plight some American atheists face today. Major news media often don't widely report stories such as the one to follow. Whether that's due to the stigma still attached to the word "atheist," or maybe that these stories really don't happen that often, I cannot say. Either way, I think stories like this deserve more attention.

In March of this year, U.S. Army Spc. Jeremy Hall filed a federal lawsuit against the U.S. Dept. of Defense, citing violations to his right to freedom from religion made by the U.S. Army.

"Hall (who was raised Baptist) served two tours of duty in Iraq and has a near perfect record. But somewhere between the tours, something changed. Hall, now 23, said he no longer believes in God, fate, luck or anything supernatural."

"His sudden lack of faith, he said, cost him his military career and put his life at risk. Hall said his life was threatened by other troops and the military assigned a full-time bodyguard to protect him out of fear for his safety."

"Two years ago on Thanksgiving Day, after refusing to pray at his table, Hall said he was told to go sit somewhere else. In another incident, when he was nearly killed during an attack on his Humvee, he said another soldier asked him, 'Do you believe in Jesus now?'"

"Hall also said he missed out on promotions because he is an atheist.
'I was told because I can't put my personal beliefs aside and pray with troops I wouldn't make a good leader,' Hall said."

"Hall isn't seeking compensation in his lawsuit -- just the guarantee of religious freedom in the military. Eventually, Hall was sent home early from Iraq and later returned to Fort Riley in Junction City, Kansas, to complete his tour of duty."

A representative from the Pentagon, Deputy Undersecretary Bill Carr, claims complaints of evangelizing are "relatively rare," and that it is not the business of the Pentagon to push a particular faith among the troops.

"'If an atheist chose to follow their convictions, absolutely that's acceptable,' said Carr. 'And that's a point of religious accommodation in department policy, one may hold whatever faith, or may hold no faith.'"

Michael Weinstein, a retired senior Air Force officer and founder of the Military Religious Freedom Foundation who is suing along with Hall, cites Christian groups that have filmed advertisements inside the Pentagon and have representatives on the majority of U.S. Army bases worldwide as evidence the the Army is pushing a Christian agenda. The Army officials who were involved with filming the advertisement inside the Pentagon have since been reprimanded.

"'Proselytizing or advancing a religious conviction is not what the nation would have us do and it's not what the military does,' Carr said."


Honestly, I don't know how to feel about Hall's lawsuit. It's obvious that since the majority of Americans are Christian, the majority of the U.S. Army is going to hold similar beliefs. Some of the comments Hall claims were made to him were in extremely bad taste, but Army leaders can't be everywhere at once. If Hall truly was denied promotion because he wouldn't be able to pray with his troops, that is clearly unconstitutional. Judging atheists based on their lack of beliefs is the root from which the majority of discrimination against them springs. I think Hall deserves respect for not asking for monetary compensation in his lawsuit. If there's anything the Dept. of Defense doesn't need more of, it's spending taxpayers' dollars.

However this lawsuit turns out, I hope at least one thing happens: if this unconstitutional discrimination against non-believers in the U.S. Army is as rampant as Hall and Weinstein claim, I hope this lawsuit will inspire similarly discriminated-against atheist and agnostic soldiers to make their voices heard.

BBC Report Finds Acupuncture No Help for In Vitro Fertilization

Much thanks to a friend of mine who brought this story to my attention.

Acupuncture is apparently the most popular form of complimentary therapy used by patients seeking In vitro fertilization (IVF) in England. London-based researchers recently presented the findings of an analysis covering 13 trials and approximately 2,500 women to a European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology meeting in Barcelona. The analysis did not show any benefits to treating IVF patients with acupuncture.

"The experts from Guy's and St Thomas' NHS (the UK's National Health Service) Trust carried out an extensive evaluation of the research carried out over the last 50 years."

"Five of the trials analysed by the team looked at the effect of acupuncture at the time of egg retrieval, while the other eight examined the benefits of giving it at the time of embryo implantation."

"Neither group of studies showed any difference in pregnancy rates between those given true acupuncture, those given a sham version and those given nothing."

"Dr Sesh Kamal Sunkara, who led the work, said, based on the evidence she had analysed, she would not advise her patients that having the therapy could improve their chances of having a baby through IVF."

Not surprisingly, Paul Robin, chairman of The Acupuncture Society of England, said he was really surprised by the findings.

"'I've been treating people for twenty years,' Robin said, 'and in my experience treatment does seem to improve their chances of becoming pregnant.'"

Unfortunately, Robin did not cite any studies in support of his claims. In the scientific community, where researchers often ask for a pesky thing called "evidence," anecdotal accounts of a treatment working are not good enough.

A detailed description of what acupuncture is and what practitioners claim it does can be found here. Put simply, it is a traditional Chinese medical technique that claims to unblock the flow of "chi" in one's body by inserting thin needles into the body at specific points. Unblocking "chi" allegedly balances the bodies opposing forces, known as the "yin" and "yang."

The mysterious energy known as "chi," a force which allegedly permeates everything, has yet to be documented by modern science. You'd think practitioners of alternative medicinal techniques that claim to manipulate "chi" would be working their collective yangs off to prove to the mainstream scientific community that "chi" actually exists. Not only would they no longer be scoffed at by their counterparts (I refuse to use the word colleague) in modern medicine, the ones to prove "chi" exists would most likely win a Nobel prize in physics. But honestly, who would want that Stockholm piece of crap and a measly US$1.6 million when they could potentially pull down a chunk of the approximately US$500 million a year made by acupuncturists in the United States?

Kinoki Foot Pads: There's Bullshit Afoot

There is a Walgreens Pharmacy about a half-mile from my house. These particular establishments seem to be as ubiquitous as Starbucks franchises in Las Vegas. The Walgreens near my house has an animated billboard in its parking lot which advertises various products that can be found for sale inside. One day while driving by, I noticed the billboard display: "Kinoki Footpads: $19.99." Now, I had seen the occasional television commercial for these products in Bellingham, WA and I must admit, I thought it was a Northwest thing. I laughed off those commercials like I have done for those of thousands of other products that offer vague claims of "cleansing your body naturally" and "removing toxins." So, my understandable first reaction to seeing these things for sale not a mile from my house was, "They're actually selling this crap?"

Since this happened a few days after I had decided to post on my blog every day, the first thing I thought of doing was going to down to Walgreens, shelling out the $19.99 (plus tax) and trying these things for myself. They plan was to offer a day-by-day report on my blog on whether or not these things actually worked.

All that changed when I searched "Kinoki" on Google and found that John Stossel over at ABC News had already done the work for me and wrote an article about it; four months ago at that. The article handily debunked the foot pads as being nothing more than strips of absorbent material that darkened when moisture was applied to them. This darkening was claimed by the Kinoki people as evidence of the toxins that had been removed from your body overnight.

So, feeling a bit disappointed that I didn't get to do my own investigative journalism, I decided to do the next best thing: write a letter to Walgreens asking why they sold these things. What follows is the text of that complaint.

I have a complaint regarding Walgreens' decision to sell Kinoki Cleansing Detox Footpads. I would like to know why a fine establishment like Walgreens chooses to sell this product despite the fact there is absolutely no scientific evidence that they do what the Description on the Walgreens website claims. Indeed, there is no earthly reason why these foot pads would "absorb toxins and impurities" as claimed.

A recent report by ABC News revealed these foot pads for what they truly are: useless pads of absorbent material that rely on the placebo effect to produce results in the user. From the article:

"The idea that they're drawing toxins through the skin out of the body in any significant amount, I think is just wrong," said Dr. George Friedman-Jimenez, the director of the Bellevue / New York University Occupational and Environmental Medicine Clinic in New York City.

NMS Labs, a national laboratory in Willow Grove, Pa. tested for a lot of things, including heavy metals like arsenic and mercury and 23 solvents, including benzene, tolulene and styrene (materials the foot pads are claimed to remove) and found none of these on the used pads. There's no evidence that it's toxins. When I dropped distilled water on the pad, it turns dark in seconds.
Link to article online: http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Stossel/Story?id=4636224&page=3

So, I would like to know, is it the usual practice of Walgreens to sell products that don't perform as claimed? If so, I'm afraid I may have to rethink my decision to shop at your particular pharmacy.

I will post any response I get from Walgreens here.

My Letter to the Texas Education Agency

As a vehement opponent of the teaching of creationism/intelligent design alongside the theory of evolution in public school science classrooms, and a native Texan, it seems I cannot let this go. Here is a formal letter of complaint I plan to send to the Texas Education Agency:


I am a concerned citizen living in Las Vegas, Nevada. I am appalled at the lack of common sense and rationality shown by the Texas Education Agency in forcing the resignation of its former Science Director, Chris Comer. It is preposterous that the TEA should chose to remain neutral on a subject such as choosing not to teach creationism/intelligent design alongside the theory of evolution. There is no credible reason given in the memorandum entitled "Proposed Disciplinary Action" sent on November 5, 2007 as to why the TEA should choose to remain neutral on such a topic. If these attitudes of the TEA persist, I fear the education of the young people in the great state of Texas, of which I am a proud native, will be put in major jeopardy. It is atrocious to think that the TEA is willing to compromise the education of the young people under its jurisdiction by not taking a stand on a subject as fundamental as the theory of evolution. I am writing this letter to express my support for Ms. Comer in her suit against the TEA, and to express my abject disappointment in the decisions of the agency.

The memorandum mentioned in the letter can be found here. It was originally linked from the story by the National Center for Science Education. I will post any response I get from the TEA here.

Woman Forced to Resign Over Evolution in Texas Fights Back

I have been wanting to write about this story since it first came to my attention on July 3, but other posts which seemed more pressing at the time forced themselves to the front.

The National Center for Science Education (NCSE) is a not-for-profit organization that follows the evolution/intelligent design debate across the United States. Its website keeps those interested, such as myself, up to date on the actions of school boards across the country which seem to be pro-creationism/intelligent design.

The story in question started in November of 2007 when Chris Comer, director of Science at the Texas Education Agency (TEA), was forced to resign because she forwarded an e-mail to her colleagues at the TEA alerting them to a talk scheduled to be given in Austin, TX. The talk was to be given by Barbara Forrest, a professor of philosophy at Southeastern Louisiana University and a member of NCSE's board of directors. The TEA cited the subject matter of the talk, the history of the intelligent design movement and Forrest's involvement in Kitzmiller et al. v. Dover Area School District, as a reason for Comer's requested resignation. The TEA said Comer's forwarding of the e-mail represented her endorsement of the speaker on a subject, the evolution/intelligent design debate, on which the TEA must remain neutral. Just to make that clear to everyone reading this, that's a state-run educational agency choosing to remain neutral on the subject of evolution through natural selection.

Eight months later, Comer has now, thankfully, filed suit against the TEA in Federal District Court for redress. From this NCSE article, Comer seeks:

• a declaratory judgment that the TEA policy of being "neutral" on the subject of creationism violates the Establishment Clause;
  
• a declaratory judgment that Comer's firing was unconstitutional;
  
• an offer from the TEA of reinstatement of Comer to her previous position as Director of Science;
  
• an injunction against TEA "having, expressing, or imposing through any means, a policy of 'neutrality' with respect to the teaching of creationism in the Texas public schools, or a policy that expressly or implicitly equates evolution and creationism, or that in any way credits creationism as a valid scientific theory"
  
• legal fees

It is my sincere hope that Miss Comer gets fully reinstated and once there, brings some much-needed common sense and rationality to a public agency clearly devoid of even the smallest shred of either. If this issue did not affect so many young people, it would truly be laughable. How can any member of the TEA, an elected board of 15 people, claim the agency must remain neutral on a subject as fundamental as evolution, and keep a straight face?

One Nation, Under God?

I'm well aware that this blog is called "Jeremy the Skeptic," but I am also an atheist. As an atheist, issues having to do with religion, specifically the separation of church and state we currently enjoy in the United States, are of great interest to me. So, in addition to posts having to do with science and the paranormal, posts about religious issues in the United States will crop up from time to time. This is one of the latter.

Since it is the Fourth of the July, I have heard the Pledge of Allegiance recited once or twice today. Most recently on a television commercial, oddly enough. It always bugged me, well as long as I've been calling myself an atheist (that's a whole separate story), why the phrase "One Nation, Under God" was smack dab in the middle of the allegiance pledge of a country that was supposed to be secular. I remember first talking about this issue when I was a senior in high school. I was in my AP Government class and the girl with whom I was talking about this didn't see it as a big deal (I went to a Catholic high school). "It's tradition," she said, to which I replied, "So is slavery. Just because some thing's been there for a long time doesn't mean it's right." The class discussion moved on after this exchange, so I never did get to hear her reply.

A few months passed and I learned, much to my surprise and relief, that the phrase in question was added in 1954, at the urging of the Knights of Columbus and a Scottish-born minister named George MacPherson Docherty. Rev. Docherty talked about a conversation he had with his son about the pledge in a sermon he gave at Washington, D.C.'s New York Avenue Presbyterian Church on a Sunday in February of 1954. Docherty thought the addition of "Under God" was important and that it didn't necessarily serve as a statement of faith for any non-believing Americans. Without a reference to God, Docherty thought, the pledge could apply to just about any nation. Then President Dwight Eisenhower, who was in attendance of the aforementioned sermon, apparently agreed. On June 14, 1954, President Eisenhower signed into law a resolution officially adding the phrase "Under God" to the Pledge of Allegiance.

Now, I would be fooling myself if I thought this would be some breaking news story; that "Under God" was not in the original pledge. I learned it as a senior in high school from my parents, and have only recently researched the details. I bring this up on the Fourth of July because such a phrase would undoubtedly be thought of as a bad idea by our founding fathers. Men who knew what a dangerous mix religion and government could make. It absolutely infuriates me when fundamentalists Christians call the United States "A Christian Nation" and use the "under God" phrase as proof. For one thing, it is a source of pride for me to know that the founding fathers and I share the same opinions about religion and government. To hear the ideals upon which this country was built thrown in the garbage just because of an inexcusable ignorance of America's history upsets me to no end. The purpose of this post has been to remind people of America's secular origins, and maybe to vent a little.

I'll end this evening with the Pledge of Allegiance as it was originally written, by a Baptist Minister named Francis Bellamy in 1892. A pledge I would have no problem reciting today.

"I pledge allegiance to my Flag and the Republic for which it stands, one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. America"

Other sources I used for this post can be found here.

Independence Day

I'm usually not prone to blind displays of patriotism, but in these times when the United States seems to slipping in its international standing at an alarming rate, I would feel remiss if I didn't write a brief post reminding everyone of the importance of this day. I would also feel remiss if I didn't state up front that I stole this idea from Dr. Phil Plait's blog, Bad Astronomy.


The true importance of the Fourth of July is often washed out by the glare of fireworks and beaten down by the forceful cacophony of television commercials offering sales on everything from mattresses to swimwear. It is perhaps even more shameful to see the ideals for which the early Americans fought and died twisted for the personal gains of politicians. Does it really matter that Barrack Obama doesn't wear an American flag lapel pin? How can his patriotism be questioned when he is running for the highest office in the land for which he obviously cares a great deal? Is blind patriotism, supporting one's country no matter what its government does, really what the founding fathers had in mind? It was dissent and a spirit of rebellion that built the country in which I live. A country whose ideals and principles I hold dear.


"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."
-Thomas Jefferson

It's this spirit of dissent that has recently brought to my mind a little experiment. An experiment, I'm sorry to say, I haven't had a chance to try. Instead of blowing things up this Fourth of July, I think it would be interesting, a true display of what makes the United States great, to light an American flag on fire. Not in protest of our government's policies, but in celebration of the freedoms our founding fathers bestowed upon us. What sort of reaction would this get, were you to do it, say, in your front yard? I can imagine, not a welcoming one. I can only hope it would start some interesting conversations with your neighbors about our freedoms as Americans, and what free speech truly is.

So, while you're outside this weekend enjoying the rockets' red glare along with a hot dog or two, keep in mind what this holiday represents. And remember how the freedoms you now enjoy came about in the first place.

"When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation."
-The Declaration of Independence

Alleged Psychic Sylvia Browne's 2008 Predictions: Mid-Year Update

Readers of this blog, if any remain, might ask why I devote so much time to covering Sylvia Browne. Believe me, if I had more time on my hands and a steady income, I would be doing more. Offering a record and critiques of her predictions is truly the least I can do to make my wish that she be stopped come true. This is why I applaud the work of one Robert Lancaster (creator of stopsylviabrowne.com) A quick skim of his sight will reveal how Browne truly operates, and the stories of those she’s hurt. One of Mr. Lancaster’s most recent posts details his harrowing descent into the underworld that is Browne’s live show at the Excalibur Hotel and Casino, in my home town of Las Vegas. But I digress.

This mid-2008 update will review the predictions Browne has made for the year in attempt record which ones, if any, have come to pass. I’ll admit freely that I am biased against Browne and her despicable work, but I do try to be fair. So here, presented in a simple list format as before, is a review of Browne’s predictions for 2008 (in bold) and anything news-worthy that has happened with regards to them.

1. Britney Spears’ younger sister Jaime Lynn Spears will have her baby.
Spears the younger gave birth to a healthy, although 10-days-premature, baby girl on June 19, 2008. Complications during the delivery apparently forced doctors to perform an emergency Cesarean on the 17-year old.

2. Browne described Britney Spears as having a "bi-polar condition," and that she will get help for it in 2008.
Several reports released a week or so after Spears was released from a Los Angeles area hospital in January of 2008 claim that the singer’s family suspects Spears may suffer from bipolar disorder. However, I could only find rumors and speculation regarding Spears’ actual diagnosis.

3. Actor Owen Wilson will have "another dip" in his depression.
As of this posting, actor Owen Wilson has not had any other publicized bouts of depression.

4. Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie will adopt another child, but the couple will not stay together.
The couple is planning to adopt another child some time after the twins Jolie is expecting this summer are born. It has yet to be seen if the couple will stay together. Browne failed to predict Jolie becoming pregnant with twins.

5. Jennifer Aniston will marry a producer in a year or two.
Aniston appears to currently be in a relationship with singer/songwriter John Mayer.

6. United State troops stationed in Iraq will start coming home "in increments" due to the withdrawal of other collation forces.
There have been no reports of US forces in Iraq returning home due to the withdrawal of other coalition forces. An NBC News affiliate in Colorado reports that President Bush plans to return some troops home from Iraq due to the recent decrease in violence there.

From the article:

"Our troops have driven the terrorists and extremists from many strongholds," Bush said. "As a result of this progress, some of our troops are coming home as a result of our policy called Return on Success,"

7. President Bush’s approval rating will continue to drop.

Bush’s approval rating has hit an all-time-low of 23% according to a poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg News.

8. Senator Barack Obama will become the Democratic "front-runner" in the race to be the next president of the United States. Senator Hillary Clinton will be in the lead in polls until the summer and suddenly "flatten out."

The race to become the Democratic nominee for president ended well before summer started. The last few months were marked by Senator Clinton’s tenacious refusal to concede to her opponent from Illinois.

9. Browne predicts "diabetic breakthroughs" and the use of "sound waves with cancer."

The biggest diabetic breakthrough I could find was that of a team working at the University of Manchester. "Scientists have discovered a new technique for turning embryonic stem cells into insulin-producing pancreatic tissue in what could prove a significant breakthrough in the quest to find new treatments for diabetes," the article reported.

Regarding the use of "sound waves with cancer" a story by the National Prostate Cancer Coalition reports on a new clinic opening up in Argentina which uses High Intensity Focus Ultrasound (HIFU) as a treatment for prostate cancer.
"HIFU utilizes focused sound waves to rapidly heat and destroy the tissue within the prostate," the article reported. It would seem that Browne was correct about this one, until you realize that this story was written in August of 2007.

10. Browne predicts "whooping cough, mumps and measles will be on the rise" in 2008.

It appears that mumps did make a comeback, but in 2006. There was no news of which to speak regarding whooping cough, but the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention claims the US is on track to get hit by one of the biggest measles outbreaks in seven years, "A series of outbreaks in nine states between January and April 25 has resulted in 64 measles cases -- the highest number reported over the same time period since 2001," the article reported.

11. Browne predicts more tsunamis, "a big earthquake in Japan," and "volcanoes erupting from all parts of the country that have been dead for years."
As of this posting, there have not been any newsworthy tsunamis or any dormant volcanoes erupting around the country. A 7.2 magnitude earthquake did strike Japan’s Iwate prefecture on June 14, 2008 killing nine people and injuring at least 200. But did Browne offer an specifics with the predictions? Of course not. She also failed to predict the massive earthquake that struck China in May, killing 70,000 people.

I'm Back

As the summer of 2008 brings 110+ temperatures to Las Vegas, my hometown, I have recently decided to stay inside out of the sun and blazing heat to focus on my blog. I admit, during the school year, it has been difficult for me to post regularly on this thing, what with all the responsibilities and obligations being a full-time student foists upon me.

However, if I ever hope to achieve my dream of being an investigative journalist leaning toward skeptical issues, I feel I must get writing, as often as possible. So, as of today, I will be posting at least one brief item regarding anything in the news that I feel is under the umbrella of this blog's coverage. I will be pooling these items from a wide variety of sources, many of which I predict will be blogs that cover similar material.

So, to whomever may still be reading this, I present to you the new-and-improved summer edition of Jeremy the Skeptic.

Alleged Psychic Sylvia Browne's 2007 Predictions: Success Rate

My recent writing of a summary of the predictions of alleged psychic Sylvia Browne for the year 2008 lead to a discussion among some friends and I about Browne’s success rate for the predictions she made on Montel for the year 2007. With a little research I was able to find both a succinct list of her predictions, given on a December 27, 2006 airing of Montel, and enough information to determine if they were either a “hit,” correct, or a “miss,” incorrect. Before I get to the success rate of Browne’s 2007 predictions, I feel I must mention the website http://www.mondoskepto.com/, where I found the succinct list of Browne’s 2007 predictions. (Specifically, this page: http://www.mondoskepto.com/node/192)

As with my previous note, the predictions, 13 in all, will be presented in a simple list format along with some of my own commentary and a link to a news story or other source, should such a source be applicable. The quotes of both Browne and Montel Williams were obtained from http://www.mondoskepto.com/

1. Browne predicted that Jennifer Lopez will not have a baby in 2007, saying that Lopez wants to but that “there’s something wrong there.” Technically, this prediction came true. However, according to an article in People Magazine, Lopez confirmed in 2007 that she is pregnant with twins. There doesn’t seem to be anything “wrong” with Lopez at all.
Prediction #1: Miss
Source: http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20159086,00.html

2. Browne predicted that reality TV star Nicole Richie will end up in the hospital. “I mean, this is serious,” Browne said, “We’re not talking about some little, ‘Let’s go and check you out.’” According to an article in US Magazine, Richie was briefly hospitalized in March of 2007. Quoted from the article, “At the hospital, Richie was given fluids and promptly released.” It seems that Richie’s hospital stay was exactly what most people would describe as “some little, “Let’s go and check you out.’”
Prediction #2: Miss
Source: http://www.usmagazine.com/nicole_richie_hospitalized

3. Browne predicted that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi will “be instrumental in helping the campaign,” here I’m presuming that Browne means the presidential campaign. In the whole of 2007, Speaker Pelosi did not announce her candidacy for president or do anything else that would be deemed news-worthy having to do with any Democratic candidates for president.
Prediction #3: Miss

4. Browne predicted that there will be a “breakthrough in Hepatitis C.” The only breakthrough I could find was reported in 2006.
Prediction #4: Miss
Source: http://www.wqad.com/Global/story.asp?S=3340337

5. Browne predicted that polio and whooping cough will be “coming back.” This is simply untrue. As of December 25, 2007, there were 895 reported cases of polio globally; that’s compared to 1848 reported cases globally in 2006. Source: http://www.polioeradication.org/casecount.asp I was unable to find any figures for cases of whopping cough globally, but chances are such a disease “coming back” would have made the news.
Prediction #5: Miss

6. Browne predicted that depression would be linked to the one’s diet. The Guardian reported on a paper making this exact same statement in January of 2006.
Prediction #6: Miss
Source:http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,6903,1686730,00.html?gusrc=rss

7. Browne predicted that a new drug will be released—having something to do with amino acids, she was not specific—to combat AIDS. Montel asked if it would put AIDS into remission, and Browne answered in the affirmative. A new drug was released, but does not put AIDS into remission and has nothing to do with amino acids. Plus, it was reported in 2006.
Prediction #7: Miss
Source: http://www.aidsmeds.com/news/am20060623.html

8. Browne predicted that the East Coast will have “one of the mildest winters ever.” Now, presuming she means the winter in the leading months of 2007, January, February, etc, Browne was correct. However, the National Weather Service made the same prediction in October of 2006, a full two months before Browne’s prediction. Source: http://www.weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php The winter in the trailing months of 2007, November, December, etc, was anything but mild. Quoted from the USA Today, “The Northeast region's latest winter storm has left several more inches of snow, causing major problems with holiday travel Friday at Boston's Logan International Airport.” Source: http://www.usatoday.com/travel/flights/delays/2007-12-21-holidaytravel_N.htm
Prediction #8: Miss

9. Browne offered a vague warning about tsunamis, about which Montel asked if they were going to cause flooding in the southern United States, to which Browne answered in the affirmative. There was no tsunami which caused any sort of flooding in the southern United States.
Prediction #9: Miss

10. Browne predicted “volcanoes erupting everywhere,” offering her usual level of specificity. Montel asked about Mexico, Hawaii and “the pacific,” to which Browne answered in the affirmative. No volcano erupted in Mexico in 2007, and Kilauea in Hawaii has been erupting effusively, read: non-explosively, since the mid-1990s.
Prediction #10: Miss

11. Browne said that she has “always been worried about a tsunami hitting New York” and made it seem that this was going to happen in 2007. No tsunami hit New York in 2007.
Prediction #11: Miss

12. Browne predicted that terrorist attacks would occur in England, Spain and France. No such events happened in 2007.
Prediction #12: Miss

13. With regards to terrorism, Browne said that she was “worried about trucks and trains in the Unites States.” No such terrorist attacks happened in the United States in 2007.
Prediction #13: Miss

I’ll admit, I was a bit disappointed when Montel failed to review Browne’s predictions for 2007 at the beginning of the episode in which Browne offered her predictions for 2008. But now, the reason why Montel did not has become all too clear: Browne utterly failed on every single one of them.

Alleged Psychic Sylvia Browne's 2008 Predictions

If anyone reading this is a frequent reader of my blog, or indeed knows me at all, they will undoubtedly be aware of my extreme dislike and, some might even say, hatred of alleged psychic Sylvia Browne. On December 31, 2007, while making one of her many appearances on the day-time talk show Montel on NBC, Browne made several predictions about what will happen in 2008 with regards to various topics such as celebrity news, medical breakthroughs and politics. With this post, I will present all the predictions Browne made on this particular episode of Montel so that anyone at all can refer back to them once 2008 comes to an end in order to see how accurate Browne was. It is my opinion that recording Browne’s predictions about verifiable facts is one of the few ways that her status as a “world-renowned psychic” can be brought into serious question; something that I feel needs to be done immediately. In addition to Browne’s predictions, summaries of two questions that were asked of her by two separate audience members are also included; questions on which Browne utterly failed but was able to twist both her words and the words of the audience members to make it appear as though she answered the questions correctly.

The predictions will be presented in a simple list format, and any text which appears in quotes is the exact phrasing used by Browne.

1. Jamie Lynn Spears, 16-year-old sister of Britney Spears, will have her baby.

2. Browne described Britney Spears as having a “bi-polar condition,” and that she will get help for it in 2008.

3. Actor Owen Wilson will have “another dip” in his depression.

4. Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie will adopt another child, but the couple will not stay together.

5. Pitt will never return to his ex-wife, actress Jennifer Aniston. Aniston will marry a producer “in a year or two.”

6. United State troops stationed in Iraq will start coming home “in increments” due to the withdrawal of other collation forces.

7. President Bush’s approval rating will continue to drop.

8. Senator Barack Obama will become the Democratic “front-runner” in the race to be the next president of the United States. Senator Hillary Clinton will be in the lead in polls until the summer and suddenly “flatten out.”

9. The next president of the United States will be from the Democratic Party.

10. Browne predicts that the Ford Motor Company will continue to produce electric-gasoline hybrid vehicles; despite the fact Ford has been doing this for the last year.

11. The stock market will be “like a rollercoaster.”

12. Browne predicts “diabetic breakthroughs” and the use of “sound waves with cancer.”

13. Browne predicts “whooping cough, mumps and measles will be on the rise” in 2008.

14. Browne predicts more tsunamis, “a big earthquake in Japan,” and “volcanoes erupting from all parts of the country that have been dead for years.”

Browne was asked by a young man in the studio audience whether or not he would be successful in his music career, to which Browne answered in the affirmative. Browne goes on to tell the young man that she sees four people around him. When the man makes it clear that he does not know about whom Browne could be talking, Browne says that in his music career, he will “absorb four other people.” Montel then asks the man what instrument he plays, to which the man replies the tenor saxophone. Montel reiterates Browne’s statement about meeting four people, and says that such an instrument generally is not played by itself. Montel says the man will most likely become part of a band with four other people; all in a fairly condescending tone. By retrofitting Browne’s original statement, that she sees four people around this man, Montel made it appear as if Browne predicted this man’s possible formation of a band when in fact she did not. Also, Montel made it seem as if the man who asked the question was somehow mistaken, and that it couldn’t have possibly been Browne who was wrong.

Browne was asked by a middle-aged woman in the studio audience where a family heirloom that belonged to her late grandmother could be found. The woman mentions that it was last seen in the possession of her son. With this information, Browne appears to assume that the aforementioned son is still a child, and that the missing heirloom will be found in the son’s belongings, explaining that he likes to hide things. Montel even chimes in and tells the woman to look through her son’s toys, to which Browne offers no correction. The woman then goes on to explain that her son is in his twenties, an age at which most people no longer have toys, or the desire to mischievously hide objects. Browne sticks to her guns and continues to tell the woman to look through her son’s things until another audience member with a question is called on. Browne was clearly incorrect about the age of the son, showing that she was most likely acting on an unwarranted assumption.

Tactics such as these lead me to believe that Browne possesses absolutely no ability to foresee the future or communicate with people who have died. Yet, Montel Williams, a former United States Marine with 22 years of service, continues to have Browne as a guest on his show and to shamelessly plug her myriad books and personal appearances. Browne seems to show no remorse for the often grieving and desperate people from whom she takes money; a 20-minute over-the-phone reading with Browne costs $700. It is not the people who continue to buy Browne’s books and services who are to blame, although consistently spending any amount of money on Browne is certainly ill-advised. Put very simply: Browne herself is to blame. She knows exactly what she is doing and yet continues to do it. I have been asked many times if I think evil exists. I maintain that I do. But instead of citing the obvious choices such as Adolf Hitler or Charles Manson, I cite “world-renowned psychic” Sylvia Browne and her ilk. In my mind, there is no greater evil than preying on the desperate and the credulous.

For more information on Sylvia Browne and her alleged “powers,” I suggest a visit to this website: http://www.stopsylviabrowne.com/home/

Good News

Well, I have good news. My letter to the editor of my college newspaper, The Western Front, was printed in their latest edition. That is truely the best result I could have hoped for. I applaud the Front for their willingness to print skeptical points of view.

A link to my letter on the Front online can be found here. Also, it seems that whoever runs that website has deleted the rather amusing and somewhat anti-Semetic comment someone left in response to my letter. I will reproduce it here, "What does this stupid Jew no anyway? Let him sleep there for a night, I'd bet he'd do it for a penny!"

Ghosts in the Library

Recently, the student-run newspaper of the university which I attend, The Western Front, ran a story reporting on the alleged existance of a ghost on the second floor of the school library. A link to the story can be found here.

Obviously, someone with a blog entitled "Jeremy the Skeptic" would find something wrong with a news story such as this. And indeed I did. Here's a letter I sent to the editor of the paper.

To the Editor,

I was deeply disappointed to find as a feature story in the April 27, 2007 issue of The Western Front an unsubstantiated report that a ghost inhabits the microform of the Wilson Library. Providing first hand accounts of “cold spots” and electrical disturbances simply does not provide any evidence for the claim that the spirit of a deceased librarian is currently occupying the building for which she is named. Just because a place feels “creepy” does not mean anything supernatural is going on. I found it particularly amusing that the president of “Advanced Ghost Hunters of Seattle-Tacoma” was contacted as if to provide an air of legitimacy to a story which would otherwise be a mediocre camp fire tale. I am hard pressed to come up with a reason why a representative from the “Society for Sensible Explanations,” also based in Seattle, was not also contacted to provide an alternative, and possibly more sensible, explanation.

Before I read this story, I had held the Front in generally high regard; I found the opinion pieces particularly fascinating. However, with the printing of a story such as “The Ghost of Wilson Library” I now retain the same amount of esteem for the Front as I do for The AS Review which, thanks to the Review’s recent uncritical look at “extra sensory perception,” is not very much. I sincerely hope that the next time an opportunity to report on anything having to do with the supernatural presents itself, the staff of the Front will gaze upon it with a more skeptical eye.

Yours,
Jeremy Schwartz

I will post any response I get. Here's hoping it's a good one.

The Idea of Prayer and the Virginia Tech Tragedy

Before I start here, I would like to extend my deepest sympathies to the families who lost loved ones on April 16th, 2007 on the campus of Virginia Tech. That includes both the families of the victims and the gunman.

It utterly blows my mind that anyone could think that praying to a god that allowed such a disaster to occur would do any good. I personally could not think of a more useless, if well intentioned, gesture. What exactly does, “My prayers are with the victims of the Virginia Tech shooting,” mean? Why does an omnipotent and omniscient god need to be reminded that 33 people who have suddenly and tragically died should go to heaven? And what of the person who did the shooting? Are the prayers of people across the country telling God that he should burn forever in the fires of eternity? How would that make the gunman’s parents feel? This is one of the things that so enrages me about the idea of prayer; the inconsistency of it all. How something that could be so well intentioned could also be used as a petition to damn someone to eternal punishment. I think it is safe to assume that at least one of the parents of at least one of the 33 students prayed for the safe return home of their son or daughter that day. Why wasn’t that prayer answered? How does God choose the prayers which he answers?

The only way I could understand the need for some people to prayer is to make themselves feel better. This is a natural human need, especially in the face of such an unspeakable calamity. Trying to come to turns with the uncertainties of the world is one of the main reasons religion evolved in the first place. It is natural for humans to try to find order in chaos. However, I have long since come to terms with the fact that there are many things that happen of which I cannot affect the outcome. There are simply some things that happen in this world that no one can change. Now, I do not know the specifics of the Virginia Tech incident and what could have been done to stop the person who did the shooting. Still, if that student was determined enough to end that many lives, he would have found a way to do so. My point is, no one can stop these random events, and it has made me much happier now that I have come to realize that. So, instead of wasting my time pointlessly beseeching a most probably non existent entity because of an event that entity should have been able to stop in the first place, I merely extend my deepest sympathies to the families of the deceased and move on with my life. Because if there’s anything that such a disaster can teach all of us, it’s how quickly our relatively short lives can be snatched away.

I'm trying my best to update my blog weekly but unfortunately a cold has struck me rather hard this week and I can't sit in front of a computer for that long. I would jut like to express my gratitude and respect to all my friends who have been following the recent Sylvia Browne debacle and now look at her, and indeed all psychics, with a more skeptical eye. It only takes a few of us to get the snowball rolling down the hill and once it gets going, it's nearly impossible to stop.